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Mmusi Maimane | Basic statistical measures must be included in matric results announcement

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How we measure a pass affects the measure of the pass rate argues the writer (Pixabay).
How we measure a pass affects the measure of the pass rate argues the writer (Pixabay).
Pixabay

The matric pass-mark debate is one that often gets muddied by the Department of Basic Education as they attempt to put up the most positive version of how they performed at the moment when they should be held the most accountable, argues Mmusi Maimane.


On Thursday Basic Education Minister Angie Motshekga will release the results for the matric class of 2022. We are all familiar with the dance by now: the Department of Basic Education (DBE) will celebrate top achievers, and Minister Angie Motshekga will announce a misleading pass mark based on the "foogasi" yardstick of 30% and 40% pass marks and claim that, overall, there is an improvement in the quality of our basic education. 

What won't be announced is that roughly 30% of students who pass matric will achieve a mark of 50% or more in the gateway subjects. These being maths, physical science, accounting, life sciences, economics and business studies. This spells disaster for our economy. 

This pass-mark debate is one that often gets muddied by the DBE as they attempt to put up the most positive version of how they performed at the moment when they should be held the most accountable. It is in their interests for us not to be clear on the standards and for the public to be confused. The more confusing it is for the public, the less likely it is that they will be held accountable for their failures to deliver quality education to the youth of South Africa.

How we measure a pass affects the measure of the pass rate 

How we measure a pass affects the measure of the pass rate - the number and percentage of people that cross the threshold. If the pass mark is set to a low standard, then the percentage of people who cross that threshold is higher. Inversely if the pass mark is set to a higher threshold, then the percentage of people who reach that threshold will be lower. We can all agree that a pass mark should be reasonable and fair to properly reflect the performance of the student and their knowledge base. 

Most people would say that 50% is a fair place to place the pass mark, you have a 50% chance of being right when asked about an issue in that subject area, which is not great, but it's something to work with. A 50% mark also reflects a mix of being able to comprehend some of the subject matter and apply the content.

READ | 'It is not anything new': Basic Education Minister Angie Motshekga defends matric pass mark 

In most exams, there is a weighting attached to different skill areas. For instance, in the Physical Science exam, recall counts for 15% of the overall points in the exam paper, understanding and comprehension 35%, applying and analysing 40% and evaluating 10%. Therefore a mark of 50% could be considered to at least represent recall and comprehension (15% + 35%). Anything less than that means that the student doesn't remember and does not understand the subject matter. 

Different standards used

So how does the DBE measure a pass? It uses three different standards to measure a pass based on six subjects. From the lowest standard to the highest standard, they are the National Higher Certificate, Diploma Pass and Bachelors Pass. The National Higher Certificate is measured on three subjects passed at 40% and the remaining three other subjects passed at 30%. Effectively it is a 35% average across six subjects. The Diploma Pass requires a minimum of four subjects to be passed at 40% and remaining two subjects to be passed at 30%. This is effectively a 37% pass mark. Finally, there is the Bachelors Pass which requires a minimum of 50% in four subjects and 40% in one subject and 30% in the last subject. Effectively this is a 45% average pass mark. 

When the matric results are announced each year, the big pass number is announced (76.4% in 2021 and 76.2% in 2020). This number is derived from the lowest level of official passes, namely the National Higher Certificate level pass. This number has always been misleading and should be done away with as it creates the false impression of a system that is performing well. Instead, universities and the business sector are struggling because of the low skills base coming from the secondary schooling system. 

Let's consider a hypothetical student, X Maphosa, who has done seven subjects in matric: maths, physical science, life science, English, Zulu, geography and life orientation. If our student X Maphosa obtained the minimum Bachelors Pass he would have Maths 50%, Physical Science 50%, Life Science 50%, English 50%, Geography 40%, Zulu 40% and Life Orientation 50%. If he wanted to study Engineering or a Bachelor of Science at most of the Universities in South Africa, he would not be admitted on the Admission Point Score (APS) system. He would have an APS score of only 22. For example, Wits University has a minimum APS score of 42 and above for most of its science programs, and the lowest admission score at the whole university for admission is 34 points. 

We must push back against scam

It is imperative we push back against this scam statistical methodology used by Minister Angie Motshekga and her department. There are basic statistical measures that we must demand to be included in the results announcements. Firstly, we need to know what the pass rate is based on 50% in six subjects. Secondly, we need to know the average mark per subject. And finally, we need to know the median and modal marks per subject. This will allow us to get a clearer picture of what is going on in South African classrooms. 

READ | EXPLAINER: Experts on the 'real matric pass rate' - and why it may decline next year

The question remains: Who benefits from using low thresholds to measure pass marks and pass rates? Not our young people and not our economy. Only the department and the minister benefit. Minister Angie Motshekga has been in office for 14 years since first appointed by President Jacob Zuma in 2009. Her legacy is awful. Our global rankings on the skills index ranks SA 107 out of 141 in skills of future workforce. If one looks at our performance on international benchmarks like TIMMS and PIRLS both reveal that only 20% of our learners are competing at the appropriate level. We cannot hold her to account effectively while the statistics are being cooked to appear in the most favourable light. 

If we had a matric results announcement where the minister honestly stood in front of South Africa and said less than 25% of our students obtained a mark of 50% and above in the matric results, there would be an honest conversation about the performance of this most critical of departments. 

What would follow is a justified call for a new minister of basic education and for an entire overhaul of the education system. Build One South Africa (BOSA) will continue to advocate for affordable, quality education for every young person - from the earliest stages of schooling to high-level degrees. Given the proportion of our National Budget allocated to education, our nation deserves - an inclusive education which prepares students for a future economy, opportunities for lifelong learning, and for a career of their choice.

- Mmusi Maimane is leader of BOSA.


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